New Seat Details - Argyll, Bute and South West Highland

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Argyll, Bute and South West Highland been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
SNP	21,153	37.0%
CON	18,063	31.6%
LIB	10,179	17.8%
LAB	7,647	13.4%
OTH	151	0.3%
SNP Majority	3,090	5.4%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Argyll, Bute and South West Highland: Map

List of old seats forming part of Argyll, Bute and South West Highland

Old seat: Argyll and Bute

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Argyll and Bute, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Argyll and Bute				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Argyll and Bute	Cowal	5,663	Argyll, Bute and South West Highland	1,339	383	597	0	0	1,646	0	0	3,965
Argyll and Bute	Dunoon	5,467	Argyll, Bute and South West Highland	1,172	872	647	0	0	1,560	0	0	4,251
Argyll and Bute	Helensburgh and Lomond South	5,471	Argyll, Bute and South West Highland	1,482	286	1,237	0	0	1,026	0	0	4,031
Argyll and Bute	Helensburgh Central	7,247	Argyll, Bute and South West Highland	1,826	577	1,302	0	0	1,551	0	0	5,256
Argyll and Bute	Isle of Bute	4,784	Argyll, Bute and South West Highland	934	707	482	0	0	1,430	0	0	3,553
Argyll and Bute	Kintyre and the Islands	5,030	Argyll, Bute and South West Highland	1,176	438	788	0	0	1,072	0	0	3,474
Argyll and Bute	Lomond North	5,873	Argyll, Bute and South West Highland	1,840	781	729	0	0	1,413	0	0	4,763
Argyll and Bute	Mid Argyll	5,867	Argyll, Bute and South West Highland	1,340	462	783	0	0	1,538	0	0	4,123
Argyll and Bute	Oban North and Lorn	7,552	Argyll, Bute and South West Highland	1,771	506	800	0	0	2,220	0	0	5,297
Argyll and Bute	Oban South and the Isles	7,784	Argyll, Bute and South West Highland	1,456	599	746	0	0	2,794	0	0	5,595
Argyll and Bute	South Kintyre	5,084	Argyll, Bute and South West Highland	1,640	435	633	0	0	1,054	0	0	3,762
	Total	65,822		15,976	6,046	8,744	0	0	17,304	0	0	48,070

The full details of these calculations are given on the Argyll and Bute seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ross Skye and Lochaber

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ross Skye and Lochaber, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ross Skye and Lochaber				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Highland	Aird and Loch Ness	2,739	Highland Central; Highland North	514	140	319	0	0	785	0	33	1,791
Highland	Black Isle	8,256	Highland North	1,759	468	1,282	0	0	2,215	0	100	5,824
Highland	Caol and Mallaig	6,534	Argyll, Bute and South West Highland; Highland Central	1,318	596	855	0	0	2,069	0	93	4,931
Highland	Dingwall and Seaforth	8,901	Highland North	1,605	1,091	1,424	0	0	2,653	0	106	6,879
Highland	Eilean a' Chèo	8,056	Highland Central	1,373	588	1,318	0	0	2,390	0	105	5,774
Highland	Fort William and Ardnamurchan	8,041	Argyll, Bute and South West Highland	1,345	1,266	954	0	0	2,685	0	99	6,349
Highland	Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh	9,373	Highland Central; Highland North	1,647	546	1,890	0	0	2,683	0	139	6,905
	Total	51,900		9,561	4,695	8,042	0	0	15,480	0	675	38,453

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ross Skye and Lochaber seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Argyll, Bute and South West Highland

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Argyll, Bute and South West Highland
Argyll and Bute	Cowal	5,544	Argyll and Bute	1,339	383	597	0	0	1,646	0	0	3,965
Argyll and Bute	Dunoon	5,945	Argyll and Bute	1,172	872	647	0	0	1,560	0	0	4,251
Argyll and Bute	Helensburgh and Lomond South	5,638	Argyll and Bute	1,482	286	1,237	0	0	1,026	0	0	4,031
Argyll and Bute	Helensburgh Central	7,350	Argyll and Bute	1,826	577	1,302	0	0	1,551	0	0	5,256
Argyll and Bute	Isle of Bute	4,970	Argyll and Bute	934	707	482	0	0	1,430	0	0	3,553
Argyll and Bute	Kintyre and the Islands	4,860	Argyll and Bute	1,176	438	788	0	0	1,072	0	0	3,474
Argyll and Bute	Lomond North	6,662	Argyll and Bute	1,840	781	729	0	0	1,413	0	0	4,763
Argyll and Bute	Mid Argyll	5,766	Argyll and Bute	1,340	462	783	0	0	1,538	0	0	4,123
Argyll and Bute	Oban North and Lorn	7,407	Argyll and Bute	1,771	506	800	0	0	2,220	0	0	5,297
Argyll and Bute	Oban South and the Isles	7,826	Argyll and Bute	1,456	599	746	0	0	2,794	0	0	5,595
Argyll and Bute	South Kintyre	5,261	Argyll and Bute	1,640	435	633	0	0	1,054	0	0	3,762
Highland	Caol and Mallaig	3,870	Ross Skye and Lochaber	742	335	481	0	0	1,164	0	52	2,774
Highland	Fort William and Ardnamurchan	8,857	Ross Skye and Lochaber	1,345	1,266	954	0	0	2,685	0	99	6,349
	Total	79,956		18,063	7,647	10,179	0	0	21,153	0	151	57,193

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Argyll, Bute and South West Highland. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Brendan O'Hara (SNP)
County/Area:	Argyll and Bute (Scotland)
Electorate:	79,956
Turnout:	71.5%

Argyll, Bute and South West Highland: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Argyll, Bute and South West Highland: Overview

Introduction